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The Memory Market Situation

Release Time:2017-07-31

The Sales of memory will reach a new record According to IC Insights latest data, the sales of two memory types, DRAM and NAND, will reach a new record this year. In terms of DRAM, the overall sales of memory components reached a record of $14.1 billion in the first quarter of 2017, which increased 13.4% compared with the same period last year. In addition, , the average selling price (ASP) of PC DRAM components increased at least 30% compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. In the meanwhile, server and mobile market had been seriously affected as well, including the average price of mobile DRAM products rose nearly 10%. Samsung as the market king, its revenue reached 6.3 billion US dollars, which increased 6.8% compared with the previous quarter and currently occupies 44.8% of the overall market share. In fact, Samsung has tasted the benefits of the chip market in recent years. Samsung Semiconductor operating profit occupied more than 60% in the second quarter Samsung Electronics total operating profit. The operating profit mainly comes from the memory chip. Except Samsung, Micron also had a substantial increase in revenue under the influence of DRAM prices rose. The data shows that memory chip sales soared and will lead Samsung Electronics exceed the world"s largest semiconductor maker, Intel, for the first time. On the other hand, the overall NAND Flash market conditions in the first quarter continued to be affected by out of stock situation in the fourth quarter. Even as the traditional NAND Flash off-season, channel grain contract price in the first quarter still increased around 20-25%. Driven by the demand for smartphones and SSDs in China and the overall NAND Flash low inventory level, the average selling price quarterly growth was pushed up of 15%. Although the first-quarter bit shipments of SK Hynix"s fell 3% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, all product lines maintained a stable profitability level. Samsung SSD in the first quarter accounted for the proportion forty percent of the overall product portfolio, and the ASP rose as the market out of stock. Therefore, the first quarter revenue declined 5.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but its NAND Flash operating profit rate improved. Increased shipments According to IC Insights latest research report, in the comparison of Q1 2017 and Q1 2016, DRAM"s average price rose 45%, NAND flash memory prices increased 40%. IHS"s statistical report also stated that the demand of DRAM and NAND in the next five years will grow 3-6 times. Therefore, under the influence of such supply and demands, the 50% growth of the storage class components is normal, and the future market will continue to bullish. In terms of DRAM, IC Insights expects actual shipments to decline in 2017. In addition, NAND shipments compared with 2016 only increased 2%. As for DRAM and NAND memory markets, the strong annual growth rate of sales is almost entirely driven by the rapid rise in the ASP. The DRAM ASP in April 2016 was 2.41 US dollars, which rose rapidly to 3.60 US dollars in January 2017, and had an increase rate of 49%. The market situation is not optimistic The reasons for the dramatic increase in memory prices are as follows: First, the memory production yield issue. In mid-February 2017, Samsung recalled part of the 18-nanometer process memory module repeatedly, and there were still flawed situations after re-shipped to the customer. This incident affected the top PC makers in DPPM (per million units of non-performing rate) have greatly improved. The market was expected the tight supply situation would be alleviated after entering the second quarter of 2017, because Samsung 18-nanometer PC DRAM memory modules and Micron 17-nanometer PC DRAM memory modules have shipped. However, Samsung occur memory yield issues. In addition to Samsung, the Micron 17-nanometer process PC DRAM memory module also appeared in the similar situation. According to currently shipping samples, the yield is still below 50%. In the 17-nanometer PC DRAM memory modules yield problematic situation, Micron can no longer go back to provide 20-nanometer process products to customers, which also makes Micron in a dilemma. Second, the natural disasters continuous Not long ago, Micron Technology Taiwan, Inc. had a nitrogen leakage accident, the factory chip and equipment have been contaminated, and the accident caused at least 60,000 wafers scrapped. The affected factory was Taiwan"s Micron wafer technology Fab2. The factory was Gemini structure, and the filed can accommodate two 12-inch factories, the capacity reaches more than 120,000 units per month. Since last year Micron merged with Inotera Memories, the factory began to enter the 20nm process, and the product line extended to the mobile device LPDDR4 as well. Third, instead of increasing capacity, major memory manufacturers promote technological progress. Specifically, in terms of DRAM, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron had no new capacity in the first half of 2017, and downstream memory requirements continue to grow, the DRAM contract prices still raised significantly in the off-season. As for NAND, basically, the flash memory spending of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron were all invested in the 3D NAND flash memory in 2017, rather than in the expansion of production capacity. However, the investment capacity in this year cannot be reduced in the short term. Finally, the market demand outbreak The cause of NAND Flash shortages mainly due to increased penetration of a variety of electronic products, emerging market users from functional phones to the smart phone that drive the rapid increase in demands for storage. In order to competing for higher 3D storage capacity NAND, each NAND Flash factory began to allocate capacity to invest in 3D NAND Flash production last year. As a result, the production yield is not up to expectations, which caused global NAND Flash out of stock. The first quarter of this year hit the biggest gains in the off-season history. In conclusion Although memory sales reached high record and had small growth shipments, the market demands for DRAM and NAND were still very tight. The average selling price of DRAM will ease in the second half of this year, but the annual average selling price growth rate still reached 63%. As for NAND"s average selling price, 2017 will also peak a historical high, and expected to reach 33%.